The new world economy

The market is stuck in a loop – Any scent of good news pushes the market up but only goes down on a piece of catastrophic bad news. This is the sign of extreme denial and complecency stating the market up loop has been reached. A new down loop will …

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Why Stock Market Sell Off

Market setup is repeating 2018 sell-off. Global uncertainty hasn’t subsided and has gotten worse. Corporate earnings have declined, and Q3 results won’t look good. Despite all uncertainty, Equities are still an all-time high Stable fixed income is nonexistence – Investors are putting more money in Risky assets that offer higher …

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So What Rally

This week all the opposing indicators rallied, Gold symbol of fear, Bond symbol of economy decline and Stocks symbol of growth. Just 3 weeks ago market did -6% correction and then +7 recovery immediately. “I’m confused, Stock Market, Bonds, Gold and Oil are all rallying together. What gives?” Investor asked. …

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Global Tech War Prologue

Oval Office United State, 2039. “Madam President you need to come with us,” said Bruce, the US president Harrington’s head of secret service. President Harrington knew, when her secret service bodyguards barged into her Oval office, it must be a serious situation concerning national security, and she needs to go …

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Market Fundamentals

Day 1 of Market Fundamental Workshop “Welcome everyone to SMU market training. For the first part of today, I’m going to cover the economic fundamentals that influence the market. So before I begin, is there any questions?”, asked Hugh the SMU training instructor looking at the group of investors who …

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Global Tech War-Dawn of New World

Global Tech War stories is a dramatisation of the unfolding trade war between the US and China based on real news. Rare Erath Mining Facility in China “We are here at the starting point of the Long March to remember the time when the Red Army began its journey. said President Xi addressing …

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Decoupling of Global Economy

The fear of the US and China economy decoupling is increasing after the US dropped an economic bomb on China, blocking US companies selling crucial semiconductors needed by the Chines tech giant Huawei. The US pressure tactics and recent tariff hasn’t worked for the last two year other than pushing …

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Growth of global economy at risk

Although the Global economy is predicted to remain at 3.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, the rise of geopolitical tension and trade war has increased the downside risks that could severely disrupt trade activities and cause significant damage on the growth of the global economy. The danger to our Global …

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Strange Economy Warren Buffett

“No textbook could have predicted the strange economy we have today.” Warren Buffet. Indeed, 2019 has been a strange economy, defying textbook market fundamentals. Here is my reasoning to explain why it is happening and what may happen. The mirage of US sweet spot Currently, many analysts agree the US …

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Loss Aversion

Would you take an offer If on the flip of a coin you win $100 if the coin lands on heads and you would lose $100 if it lands on tails? Daniel Kahneman in 1979 and numerous behavioural study has shown, many people will not accept this offer unless the …

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Don’t follow the crowd

“The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone is likely to find themselves in places no one has ever been before.” Albert Einstein Following the crowd seems like a safe move, but wouldn’t result in new innovations and wouldn’t …

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Lessons learnt from 2018

What happened in 2018 provides important lessons for investors to adjust their investment strategies for 2019. The biggest lessons were the big upside momentum that was created at the start of 2018 made many investors complacent, pouring more money in a momentum-driven market. What many investors didn’t realize was the …

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